The ruling elites of Russia can also be divided into two camps, which some Russians call the “Liberals” camp and the “Patriots” camp. These two camps have existed in a peaceful manner since the nineties, but this may end soon. “Patriots” are representatives of military members, the armaments industry, and also people holding positions in the authorities during the socialist era. It seems that their importance in the country is slowly but steadily growing.
The second camp is “Liberals”, although this name is not identical with the notion of liberalism used in Western countries. It groups people from the elites who have gained positions and influences in the times of great changes that followed the collapse of the USSR. Their guiding philosophy is the conviction that only close cooperation with international finance in the West is the only way to guarantee Russia’s economic development. They remind us that the living standard of the Russians began to rise in the times of Leonid Brezhnev, who initiated the opening of the state to the west.
The number of Liberals in the authorities, huge in the times of political change, is falling systematically. Many left the country fearing the accusation that the property they had gained in the nineties was taken dishonestly. Those who remain in the country are still supported by native oligarchs. There are no oligarchs in the authorities.
It cannot be ruled out that there will be a confrontation, as a result of which representatives of only one group will be in power. The weak point of the Liberals is that since the changes in the nineties to the present, Russia’s economic development depended on them, and this one has been almost in place for several years.
Because the Liberals are weakening and the Patriots are growing stronger, it can be assumed that it is Patriots who can take over the management of the economy. The weakness of the Patriots is that they have no experience in managing the capitalist economy and have no knowledge in American and Western European financial institutions where the international financial elites rule.
If the Patriots want to give up cooperation with the international elites, they will have to apply economic management by pseudo-socialist methods or form capitalistic state. They have no cardinal experience in managing the capitalist economy and finances can repeat the situation that occurred in the socialist countries immediately after the fall of socialism. Then the people took the power not because they had knowledge and experience, but because they were brave.
Forecasts for tomorrow
It is not entirely clear what path the Russian economy will follow in the coming years and who will be the main strategist. For many years, President Vladimir Putin was not a playmaker in internal politics and he acted rather as an arbitrator.
He is not an economist by education, and I do not think that he suddenly felt a competent person and wanted to actively influence economic decisions. He understands and knows foreign policy and will probably stay with her. If there is a crisis and another political group takes over the leadership of the Russian economy, it will simply take their side.
I anticipate that in the near future in the world liberal financial elite will face a heated struggle with advocates of national economies. If supporters of national economies win this clash, they can become allies of patriotic forces in Russia.
The most well-known supporter of the national economy is President Donald Trump. The largest nurseries of liberal economies are the United States, Germany, France and the Benelux states. If the supporters of the national economy in the United States lose against liberal financial elites, it is likely that the Liberals will continue to manage the economy in Russia.