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Poland got into a dead end of a security crisis on its own

 Poland got itself into a security crisis entirely on its own. The RF was simulating  a nuclear strike exercise  on  Warsaw in case.  Allies from the West did not react to it in any way to show solidarity and support. Back then things did not look bleak and there was no threat of a war. Since then, a democratically elected government was violently removed from power, and a civil war broke out  as a result in Ukraine, both events being actively co-organized and supported by the West and sadly also including our country through the faulty eastern initiative. Those events dramatically change the whole strategic situation in the region, including NATO and its increased presence on the eastern wing.

However this presence is more symbolic then of any military significance, it has nonetheless somewhat a political meaning, which in turn shapes out the geo-strategy. Because, the last time that western troops where in a position directed on Moscow was in 1941, and we all know well how it played out then. Today the presence of allied NATO forces in eastern(Russian-speaking) Latvia or Estonia that is the doorway into Saint Petersburg is an outright provocation. On top of all of that we have unwarranted patrolling of the air space of the Baltic states  which don’t really have a set border with the Federation, all the time. In consequence a flight in a border zone always would be a bone of contention and arguments of who, when and by how much violated foreign air space.  Those incident would be labeled by both sides as provocations, leading to increased tensions.

The security system in Europe is constantly evolving. Current post-cold war role of NATO on the continent has used itself up. The division into East-West is leading back to  the past model from before.  Western European states have no intention whatsoever to seriously enter a conflict with Russia, with which they are so economically intertwined. It is clearly visible  with the example of fictitious sanctions  on investments like Nordstream project. What the Americans are planning is actually unknown, however what is certain, is that they withdrew from guarantying the security of Europe.

They view the old continent  more like a geo-political and economic rival as oppose to a partner. Especially dangerous seems to be the common currency Euro that may threaten the supremacy of the Dollar. Additionally a vision of good cooperation between Russia and Europe equally scares the decision makers in  Washington, like the ones in France a century ago, when Bismarcks’ united Germany wanted to cooperate  with the Russian Empire.  This very analogy shows how the  global reality turned a circle and ended up in the same place, but for us nothing really changed. We are still between stone and a hard place like we have always been.  The guarantee of American presence in NATO meant that Germany was the whole time an “anvil”. Currently Germany openly speaks about common defense initiative, which would mean rebuilding of the German military power. Unfortunately in Poland today, used cars from Germany bought cheaply, give us a false sense of security , we fail to see with what kind of power we are dealing. Germany is a global player, one out of fife, and strengthen  by the EU is a number two player. In practice all that we can do is make a sad face. They are making the rules and calling the shots and they are the ones attracting all regional countries  to cooperate.

Germany is an undisputed power, that is using the EU to its advantage, it does not need NATO, it always was a restriction on its self-dependence. Today it is not known if the Americans are not able to control Germany and that is why they are withdrawing, or if they cannot afford it anymore.

Exactly in this very context we need to analyze the concept of three seas and stressing of American presence in the poor middle Europe. Their presence over here means that they are able by using us as a leverage to put a wedge at least for the time being,  between  Germany and the Russian Federation.  Their presence will not be a gift, we will have to pay for it, after all we all  know that the Americans  are business oriented and do  never anything for free.  Moreover when our neighbours loose their patience and decide to set things straight, then we will really pay. The last time our alliances were tested was between 1 and 17 September of 1939,and we all remember how it ended up.   Just remember, all that is changing is the technology  of killing these days.  The geo-political realities remain the same in this part of Europe.

Poland going along with the American rhetoric about “new and old”  Europe (with joining the invasion of Iraq) got itself into a dead end of security crisis. You can not be talking about someone elses’ aggression  while you are being an aggressor yourself.  West is not  going to die for Suwalki, quite the opposite, they will be loyally paying for the gas pumped through the Nordstream gas pipelines, and the money from the sales will go towards militarization that could be used against Poland if the situation calls for it. One has to be aware of it as well as the great pending  strategic danger, because in reality of being alone, we will be just ignored. But if we were to station any American military instalments (ex Radzikowo), then we have to count with appropriately “harsher treatment”. So the question is, is American presence increasing our security or is it not? In case of Russia may be so. But in case of  conflict with Germany at the same time, then we have to think it over seriously again.  

Written by Krakauer and Translated by Kanadier. Tekst polski [tutaj]. Russian version [link].

6 komentarzy

  1. Szanowny Panie JÓZEFIE WEB, jest mi przykro krytykować Pana ale zamieszczanie artykułów w obcych językach to naprawdę nie przystoi. Myślę, że takie same zdanie mają inni czytelnicy OP. NIEPRAWDAŻ.

    SZANOWNY PANIE OTWIERAMY SIĘ NA NOWYCH CZYTELNIKÓW, PRZYCZYNIAJĄC SIĘ DO OBECNOŚCI OP W NOWYCH OBSZARACH JĘZYKOWYCH. WSPÓŁCIESZĘ SIĘ PANA RADOŚCIĄ. WEB. JÓZ. PS. TEKSTY WPROWADZA WEB. WERONIKA A NIE JA.

    • Trzeba być prowokatorem, żeby krytykować redakcję za to, że tłumaczy doskonałe teksty na angielski… naprawdę siedźmy we własnym kiblu, niech nas nie widzą i nie słyszą – wsi spokojna, wsi wesoła. Niech głos Polaków reprezentuje gazeta gówniana, OP niech będzie tylko dla nas, zachowamy swoją moralną wyższość a że świat nas nie rozumie – jego problem. Bardzo dziękuję za tłumaczenie na angielski i niemiecki (też są teksty). To bardzo ważne, ponieważ teksty publikowane tutaj wyrażają moje poglądy i jak myśle milionów Polaków. Chciałbym żeby świat przeczytał to co tutaj piszemy. Tak trzymać – nie dawać się prowokatorom.

      • @R.G…no wlasnie ! Trzeba podkreslic,ze felietony ukazuja sie w j.polskim a potem dopiero sa tlumaczone na jezyki obce i publikowane,tak,ze jest to okazja “doksztaltu” jezykow obcych,gdyz znajac tekst polski latwiej rozumie sie tekst w jezyku obcym
        to jest znakomita metoda uczenia sie a raczej udoskonalenia znajomosci jezykow obcych,do tego misja otwarcia sie na nowe kregi czytelnicze jest wysoce chwalebna…

  2. R.G. lepiej siedzieć na kiblu z sedesem niż na żyrdce. Rzeczywiście muszę się przyznać do błędu i bardzo przepraszam, których uraziłem swym nie przemyślanym wpisem a szczególnie Pana Józefa Web i Web Weronikę. Bardzo przepraszam i proszę o WYBACZENIE.

  3. US Occupatinal Army located in Poland are ready to start a new Barbarossa Operation against Russia. Results seems to be similar.

  4. “The United States has entered the ranks of the failed states. One of the most remarkable manifestations of a failed state is that the criminals are all inside the government operating against the people, whereas in a normal state, the criminals are on the outside of the government, operating against it. So, we now have every manifestation of being a failed state, with the government in the hands of a few Wall Street gangsters.” – Paul Craig Roberts

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