Poland got itself into a security crisis entirely on its own. The RF was simulating a nuclear strike exercise on Warsaw in case. Allies from the West did not react to it in any way to show solidarity and support. Back then things did not look bleak and there was no threat of a war. Since then, a democratically elected government was violently removed from power, and a civil war broke out as a result in Ukraine, both events being actively co-organized and supported by the West and sadly also including our country through the faulty eastern initiative. Those events dramatically change the whole strategic situation in the region, including NATO and its increased presence on the eastern wing.
However this presence is more symbolic then of any military significance, it has nonetheless somewhat a political meaning, which in turn shapes out the geo-strategy. Because, the last time that western troops where in a position directed on Moscow was in 1941, and we all know well how it played out then. Today the presence of allied NATO forces in eastern(Russian-speaking) Latvia or Estonia that is the doorway into Saint Petersburg is an outright provocation. On top of all of that we have unwarranted patrolling of the air space of the Baltic states which don’t really have a set border with the Federation, all the time. In consequence a flight in a border zone always would be a bone of contention and arguments of who, when and by how much violated foreign air space. Those incident would be labeled by both sides as provocations, leading to increased tensions.
The security system in Europe is constantly evolving. Current post-cold war role of NATO on the continent has used itself up. The division into East-West is leading back to the past model from before. Western European states have no intention whatsoever to seriously enter a conflict with Russia, with which they are so economically intertwined. It is clearly visible with the example of fictitious sanctions on investments like Nordstream project. What the Americans are planning is actually unknown, however what is certain, is that they withdrew from guarantying the security of Europe.
They view the old continent more like a geo-political and economic rival as oppose to a partner. Especially dangerous seems to be the common currency Euro that may threaten the supremacy of the Dollar. Additionally a vision of good cooperation between Russia and Europe equally scares the decision makers in Washington, like the ones in France a century ago, when Bismarcks’ united Germany wanted to cooperate with the Russian Empire. This very analogy shows how the global reality turned a circle and ended up in the same place, but for us nothing really changed. We are still between stone and a hard place like we have always been. The guarantee of American presence in NATO meant that Germany was the whole time an “anvil”. Currently Germany openly speaks about common defense initiative, which would mean rebuilding of the German military power. Unfortunately in Poland today, used cars from Germany bought cheaply, give us a false sense of security , we fail to see with what kind of power we are dealing. Germany is a global player, one out of fife, and strengthen by the EU is a number two player. In practice all that we can do is make a sad face. They are making the rules and calling the shots and they are the ones attracting all regional countries to cooperate.
Germany is an undisputed power, that is using the EU to its advantage, it does not need NATO, it always was a restriction on its self-dependence. Today it is not known if the Americans are not able to control Germany and that is why they are withdrawing, or if they cannot afford it anymore.
Exactly in this very context we need to analyze the concept of three seas and stressing of American presence in the poor middle Europe. Their presence over here means that they are able by using us as a leverage to put a wedge at least for the time being, between Germany and the Russian Federation. Their presence will not be a gift, we will have to pay for it, after all we all know that the Americans are business oriented and do never anything for free. Moreover when our neighbours loose their patience and decide to set things straight, then we will really pay. The last time our alliances were tested was between 1 and 17 September of 1939,and we all remember how it ended up. Just remember, all that is changing is the technology of killing these days. The geo-political realities remain the same in this part of Europe.
Poland going along with the American rhetoric about “new and old” Europe (with joining the invasion of Iraq) got itself into a dead end of security crisis. You can not be talking about someone elses’ aggression while you are being an aggressor yourself. West is not going to die for Suwalki, quite the opposite, they will be loyally paying for the gas pumped through the Nordstream gas pipelines, and the money from the sales will go towards militarization that could be used against Poland if the situation calls for it. One has to be aware of it as well as the great pending strategic danger, because in reality of being alone, we will be just ignored. But if we were to station any American military instalments (ex Radzikowo), then we have to count with appropriately “harsher treatment”. So the question is, is American presence increasing our security or is it not? In case of Russia may be so. But in case of conflict with Germany at the same time, then we have to think it over seriously again.